Business value is a shared enterprise

How will your organization capture value in the next five years? Because we’ve all enjoyed our digital “fun” over the last decade through our Facebook likes and Twitter spats. But until recently, market developments have mainly, as technology writer Kara Swisher has said, been driven by “big minds chasing small ideas”. We’re now entering an era of “big brains focused on big ideas” – using data and insight to transform how we’re educated, fed, transported, insured, medicated and governed. “We’re all software companies now” so the saying goes and the saying is right because we’re beginning to virtualize everything from products and services to entire value-chains and industries.

No industry is immune from the rise of software. The insurance industry is now awash with data as wearable devices generate individual health profiles and customized premium quotes, and our driving insurance policies can be based on actual driving performance (you’ve seen the ads and yes, if the price is right, we’re willing to be tagged and tracked!). In big pharma, data is supercharging an era of innovation and opportunity as smart medical devices, intelligent pill bottles, bio-sensors and now even digestible chips on pills create a trail of data that can be analysed for meaning and value. Data is now the basis for intercompany innovation. It’s triggering a wave of experimentation like the recent tie-up between Novartis and Google (Google is ALL about the data). Novartis wanted to license Google’s smart contact lens to measure a wearer’s blood sugar levels (and gain a data feed) and begin to build a platform for innovation (co-creating with the data feed). It hasn’t yielded a return but it shows the direction of travel. Business value increasingly flows across many different players. Business value is a shared enterprise across new partnerships and consortia.

Brands are no longer single entities because end-to-end customer journeys and customer experiences now depend on many different inter-related dependencies and players. It is happening now—new market niches like the connected car, connected home or the smart city are much more than lofty concepts; rather, these entities are developing into synchronized products and services set among a diverse range of players. I wrote about this previously here; a great example are the world’s car manufacturers that are busy organizing into commercial consortia to capture the opportunities from the predicted rise of the self-driving car. The autonomous car is starting to trigger an industry mashup way beyond the current spat for control of the ride sharing software or the in-car entertainment interface between Apple and Google. These ecosystems that are now forming are the backbone for future value.

Once you start looking for them you will see these new software ecosystems everywhere. Look at the big shift in banking strategy as Fintech builds. Many of the established banks now run platform strategies and open architectures to aggregate 3rd party Fintech data and enable the delivery of newly slick, personalized products and services in compelling new ways. (BTW If you’re serious about how eco-systems work then get scrubbed on platforms and application programming interfaces (APIs) which are the glue that sticks these and other services together). For example, S&P’s Capital IQ uses APIs to integrate key information, including investment research, companies’ financials, credit ratings, and global market data, and alpha and risk models, into personalized business applications for customers. In this accelerated world of APIs and consortia, companies will have to interact with many more partners covering a broad range of functions and it’s fiendishly complex to master: check out the customer data ecosystem for example; it needs customer analytics solutions, engagement agencies, social media marketing folks, tag management expertise, loyalty solutions, customer engagement agencies, data aggregators, recommendation engines, pricing engines, back to market research panels and interactive agencies. Where does this stuff get put-together? How does it work? Who makes it work?

This is why I’ve just wrapped up some research that shows how the spaces where we come together to work matter. Because if you take a second to understand the interplay between workflow and space you’ll understand why the space where work gets done matters now more than ever. Workflow is changing as data infuses everything but the emerging market opportunities described above call on companies to assemble work-teams to blend skills, capabilities and innovative thinking inside, outside and across traditional organizational structures. The crackle of innovation needs to happen somewhere and it’s not just going to happen online. Your people, if they’re good, will be keen to discuss the trajectory of the work they do and the structural shifts that are now playing out everywhere. The future of your space still watch this space.

PS. The next wave of value that Kara Swisher rightly points too we think will come from more established companies in more traditional industries that can see and seize the opportunities ahead. It means organizing around platforms, boosting innovation and assembling new machines for work—this is Europe’s digital imperative. Entirely new market sectors are now emerging that blend talent, disciplines and technologies in a super-charged wave of innovation—connected cars, social insurance, smart homes, digital health – the list goes on. These ecosystems supporting these markets have radically switched in the last 5 years...what is interesting is they’ve taken the talent pool with them!

What are the Jobs of the Future?

21 Jobs of the Future: A Guide to Getting – and Staying – Employed Over the Next 10 Years

Concern about a “jobless future” has never been greater. Seemingly every day an academic, researcher, or technology leader suggests that in a world of automation and artificial intelligence workers will increasingly be surplus to requirements – as Stanford University’s Jerry Kaplan puts it, in the near future “Humans Need Not Apply”.

The concerns are understandable. Artificial Intelligence – long academic theory and Hollywood plotline – is becoming “real” at an astonishing pace and finding its way into more and more aspects of work, rest, and play. AI is now being used to read X-Rays and MRIs. It’s at the heart of stock trading. Chat with Siri or Alexa and you’re using AI. Soon, AI will be found in every job, in every profession, in every industry around the world.

What Work Will Be Left in the Future?

When machines do everything lots of people wonder what will we do? What work will be left for people? How will we make a living when machines are cheaper, faster, and smarter than us? Machines that don’t take breaks, vacations, get sick, or want to chat to their colleagues about last night’s game. To many people the future of work is a bleak place full of temporary jobs (a “gig” economy), minimum wage labor, and a ruling technocracy safely hidden away in their gated communities and their circular living machines.

In the future work will change but won’t go away. Many types of job will disappear. Many workers will struggle to adjust to the disappearance of the work they understand and find it hard to thrive with work they don’t understand. Wrenching transformations – which is what the future of work holds for us all – are never easy. But a world without work is a fantasy which is no closer to reality in 2017 than it was 501 years ago upon the publication of Thomas More’s Utopia.

21 Jobs of the Future to Emerge Over Next 10 Years

In the new report 21 Jobs of the Future, we propose 21 new jobs that will emerge over the next ten years and which will become cornerstones of the future of work. We believe that these are jobs that will create mass-employment, providing work for the many people in offices, stores, and factory floors displaced or disrupted by technology.

Our 21 jobs of the future are positioned over a 10 year timeline and according to their “tech-centricity”. Some of the jobs are already here, or imminent. Some of them are still a few years out. Some of the jobs are highly technical whilst others won’t require much tech-knowledge at all.

The jobs cover many disciplines, markets, and technologies, but fall within three key themes;

  • Coaching – helping people get better at things e.g. managing their finances, managing their weight.
  • Caring – improving people’s health and wellness.
  • Connecting – man and machine, “traditional” and “shadow” IT, the physical and the virtual, commerce with ethics.

These 3C’s speak to a universal truth – that no matter how technological our age becomes ultimately we, as humans, want the human touch.

Work has been central to mankind for millennia. Our very names convey that fact; Baker, Brewer, Glover, Woodman, Wright, Mason, Judge, Weaver, Hunter, Dyer, Fisher. In the future work will continue to be core to our identities, our nature, our dreams, and our realities. But it won’t necessarily be the work we know or do now. Read the full 21 Jobs of the Future report to examine the new jobs that will be central to the future. You never know, one day, you might be doing one of them.

Every click, swipe, "like," buy, comment, deposit, jog and search produces information that creates a unique virtual identity - something we call

Code Halo

Code Halo TM
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Unevenly Distributed

We made a conscious decision in writing What to Do When Machines Do Everything that we would focus on AI’s role in wealth creation – not wealth distribution. Modern western businesses, operating in hyper competitive capital markets, are focused on making money. How that money is spread through society is a secondary issue to the executives and business leaders that seek advice and guidance from Cognizant and The Center for the Future of Work.

But on our travels telling the story of AI in boardrooms and barrooms around the world, the same questions keep on coming up, sometimes openly, sometimes in whispered side conversations; “Ben – we get it; AI is the great story of our time. But what’s going to happen to workers automated away? What’s going to happen to folks left behind? Is the Fourth Industrial Revolution going to lead to a real revolution?”

These questions have hung openly and heavily in the air (along with the Mary Jane) here in San Francisco this week at the annual user conference, Dreamforce. Amidst the excitement about Einstein (SFDC’s AI offering) session after session has focused on “inclusive capitalism”, “diversity”, “citizen coding”, “democratization of tech based opportunity”. There are clearly many, many business people who understand that even though their primary focus is on making money, the distribution of money issue can’t be entirely ignored.

Of course, San Francisco is the perfect back drop to discuss these questions. Perhaps nowhere in the world does the future clash so glaringly with the present as in the streets around the Moscone Center. Allbird clad, Jamba Juice sucking, tech masters of the universe scuttle past cardboard hugging, bug-eyed, lost souls, on their way to their 8am keynote presentation on “mindfulness”. Presiding over it all is the new Salesforce Tower, looming like T.J Eckleburg’s glasses in The Valley of Ashes. San Francisco is the geographical embodiment of the power of disruption, with all of its positive and negative consequences.

Given that the question of wealth distribution is so present, so pressing, and clearly so legitimate, what can be done to ensure that the incredible power of new AI based technologies and business models produces utilitarian outcomes, i.e. generates the greatest happiness of the greatest number. Answers here in SF have been thin on the ground, I’m afraid. Plenty of talk but an absence of solutions (and comfy seating).

As I see it, and as I’ve been telling anyone who’ll care to listen, there are really three approaches;

1 (the one that underpins our entire perspective presented in our book) – individuals, organizations and societies need to master the new tools to outperform their competition. Do that successfully – through education, training, and re-training - and you (personally, corporately, societally) will participate in a new golden age – the Code Rush.

2 try to stop (or at least) slow the power of AI based disruptive transformation to allow individuals, organizations and societies more time to adjust and adapt to the new Code Rules.

3 reconfigure society so that the current “winner takes all” philosophy, that pre-dates the rise of AI but which clearly AI could hugely exacerbate - is changed.

Popular amongst approaches 2 and 3 is the notion of a “universal basic income”. Tax the fruits of robot/AI based labor and distribute the monies in the form of a payment to everyone in society. Break the link between work and money and utopia is finally within reach, the argument goes. Attractive as it sounds, the idea of UBI breaks down very quickly when you get past the sexy sounding name. Would everyone get it? Even those happy in their work? How could people live on $5,000 or $10,000 (the numbers often bandied around as being the amount on offer) in New York? Let alone San Francisco. How could the US afford to pay the c.150m people in the workforce today? What about moral hazard? Wouldn’t the devil make work for millions of idle hands?

Forms of UBI are already in place in parts of the world today. Citizens in Norway and Saudi Arabia for example, flush with the spoils of oil that was oil before the new oil was code, pay “negative taxes” i.e. they receive payments from the government and don’t make payments to the government. But rather than being happy about it Norwegians, according to journalist Simon Saetre, “have been corrupted by their oil money, are working less, retiring earlier, and calling in sick more frequently”. recent turmoil amidst the ruling classes in Saudi Arabia reflects a desire within a new generations of leaders to wean the Kingdom off the addictive drip of petrodollars, change the lotus-eating culture, and put the country to work. Neither country’s experiences provide compelling evidence that UBI is a model to be scaled around the world. UBI is a nice fantasy but not really a practical solution.

There are though a series of ideas and ways and means that could make approach 3 a reality. And surprisingly none of them are new, or weird, or utopian or fantastical. And even more surprisingly, none of them have received any airing at Dreamforce. Yet they are all tried and tested and have worked in the past, in countries around the world and for considerable periods of time;

1 Legislation - governments could (some do) enact laws that balance the playing field between capital and labor. President Roosevelt led the charge against American trusts in the early 20th Century, which in turn created the conditions for what is now widely seen as a golden age of American expansion and wide spread prosperity. Prime Minister Attlee introduced death duties in 1945 that defenestrated the British aristocracy, releasing an explosion of middle class energy that generated the Swinging Sixties and Cool Britannia.

2 Unions – many socio-economic commentators (including Thomas Pitteky) date the start of the latest era of wealth concentration to the collapse of unions at the hands of Ronald Regan and Margaret Thatcher. The notion of unionization remains deeply unfashionable amongst white collar workers (although professional bodies for doctors and lawyers that in effect work as unions are perfectly acceptable) but in a Newtonian world (for every force there is an opposite and equal reaction) it would not be beyond logic to imagine that “Labor” could once again organize to take on “Capital”.

3 Withdrawal of custom – in our present day market economy the ultimate power is the power of the market. As the original (and best) Stephen Colbert put it, “Global warming is real because Al Gore's movie made money— the market has spoken”. If you don’t like the way the world is going, and don’t like what companies are doing replacing people with software and machines, don’t buy from them. Buy from companies that are “people first”, not “AI first”. Some people don’t buy from Walmart because Walmart’s low prices knock out local independent competition who can’t compete on price. Use your purchasing power to be the change you want to see. Take it to another level and move to a town like Portland with an artisanal culture of man, not THE MAN, made.

4 Establish a “People First” business – start up a company that does not use AI, robotics, automation based software, or other labor saving devices, but rather favors employing people, and then win in the race against the machine, in the market.

Approaches 1 through 4 are things that could happen today. Could ... but don’t hold your breath.

The tax proposals in the US congress currently are unlikely to slow down our new robber barons.

Fledgling efforts to re-establish a credible union movement seem to have a long way to go.

Me: “We should buy the lightbulbs from ACE”.

Wife: “But they’re cheaper at Walmart”.

Me: “Oh, ok then ...”

A “people first” business sounds good, but with no technology? Is that even doable nowadays?

Elements of approaches 1 through 4 may come to fruition in some form and in some configuration over the next few years, but the truth is that none of them are imminent. Legislative fixes are years, perhaps decades away. A societal rejection of low-prices (paying more for goods and services to protect employment and generate wage growth) is not on the horizon. Public capital markets would crucify a company that tried to operate by a completely new set of rules - as Snap is finding out, painfully, as I type.

And all the while the AI clock is ticking. All the while AI is re-shaping what organizations do and how they do it. All the while mastery of AI is becoming the key determining factor between success and failure in the world in which we live.

The discussion of wealth distribution is extraordinarily challenging and complex. Maybe we’ll only solve it when we apply AI to it. The Randians and Ghandians of San Francisco should perhaps start eating some of their own disruptive dog-food.

In the meantime there is one thing you can do. Read What to Do When Machines Do Everything to learn how to get ahead in a world of AI, algorithms, bots and big data. While the question of wealth distribution will swirl around us for the foreseeable future, undoubtedly revisited here again in SF at Dreamforce 2018, and will require the cooperation and coordination of thousands, if not millions of people, the wealth creation issue is right in front of you today, and what you do about it is entirely in your own hands.